Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada
Identifieur interne : 005E53 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005E52; suivant : 005E54Assessing the impact of future land-use changes on hydrological processes in the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada
Auteurs : G. N. Wijesekara [Canada] ; A. Gupta [Canada] ; C. Valeo [Canada] ; J.-G. Hasbani [Canada] ; Y. Qiao [Canada] ; P. Delaney [Canada] ; Dj. Marceau [Canada]Source :
- Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam) [ 0022-1694 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- Pascal (Inist)
- Utilisation terrain, Rivière, Bassin versant, Réservoir, Eau potable, Gestion ressource eau, Simulation numérique, Stockage eau, Modèle, Carte utilisation terrain, Efficacité, Ecoulement base, Etalonnage, Performance, Agriculture, Forêt, Evapotranspiration, Infiltration, Eau surface, Approvisionnement eau, Eau souterraine, Aquifère, Rivière Elbow, Alberta.
- Wicri :
- topic : Eau potable, Forêt, Eau souterraine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Alberta, agriculture, aquifers, base flow, calibration, digital simulation, drainage basins, drinking water, efficiency, evapotranspiration, forests, ground water, infiltration, land use, land use map, models, performances, reservoirs, rivers, surface water, water resource management, water storage, water supply.
Abstract
The Elbow River in southern Alberta, Canada is the source of the Glenmore reservoir, which provides drinking water to the City of Calgary. Due to the rapid population growth in Calgary, the Elbow River watershed (ERW) that covers about 1238 km2 has been under considerable pressure for land-use development over the last decade. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of potential land-use changes over the next 20 years on the hydrological processes in ERW by combining a land-use cellular automata (CA) model and the distributed physically-based MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 hydrological model. The CA model was calibrated using four land-use maps covering the period 1985-2001 and validated against the maps of 2006 and 2010. Simulations of land-use changes were then performed from 2006 to 2031 at a five year interval; land-use based parameters were extracted from the simulated maps and transferred to MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11. MIKE-SHE was calibrated for the period 1985-1990 and validated for the period 2000-2005. The Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency calculated between observed and simulated flow data for the calibration and validation periods are 0.56, 0.52, 0.79, and 0.75 based on different hydrometric stations respectively, indicating an acceptable level of performance of the model. Land-use changes analyzed for the period 2001-2031 reveal a 65% increase in built-up areas, 20% in rangeland/parkland, and 1% in agriculture along with a reduction of 28% in deciduous, and 6% in evergreen forest. As a result, the hydrological modeling indicates an increase of 7.3% in overland flow, and a decrease of 1%, 13.2%, and 2.3% in total evapotranspiration, baseflow, and infiltration respectively along with a decrease of the total flow by 4%. These results reveal a potential significant negative impact on the sustainability of ground/surface water supplies and groundwater storages in the future in the watershed in addition to an increased risk of flashy floods. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area, a comprehensive physically-based method is required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined CA/MIKE-SHE models appear as a useful tool to assess the impact of land-use changes on the hydrologic cycle and to better understand the connection among the hydrologic components in the Elbow River watershed.
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N." last="Wijesekara">G. N. Wijesekara</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW</s1><s2>Calgary, AB</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Calgary, AB</wicri:noRegion><orgName type="university">Université de Calgary</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Calgary</settlement><region type="state">Alberta</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gupta, A" sort="Gupta, A" uniqKey="Gupta A" first="A." last="Gupta">A. Gupta</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="02"><s1>Alberta Environment, Calgary, Deerfoot Square Building, 2938 11 Street, NE</s1><s2>Calgary, AB</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>2 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Calgary, AB</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Valeo, C" sort="Valeo, C" uniqKey="Valeo C" first="C." last="Valeo">C. Valeo</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="03"><s1>Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW</s1><s2>Calgary, AB</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>3 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Calgary, AB</wicri:noRegion><orgName type="university">Université de Calgary</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Calgary</settlement><region type="state">Alberta</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hasbani, J G" sort="Hasbani, J G" uniqKey="Hasbani J" first="J.-G." last="Hasbani">J.-G. Hasbani</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW</s1><s2>Calgary, AB</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Calgary, AB</wicri:noRegion><orgName type="university">Université de Calgary</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Calgary</settlement><region type="state">Alberta</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Qiao, Y" sort="Qiao, Y" uniqKey="Qiao Y" first="Y." last="Qiao">Y. Qiao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>DHI Water and Environment Canada, 150 Main St. Suite 303</s1><s2>Cambridge, ON</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Cambridge, ON</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Delaney, P" sort="Delaney, P" uniqKey="Delaney P" first="P." last="Delaney">P. Delaney</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><inist:fA14 i1="04"><s1>DHI Water and Environment Canada, 150 Main St. Suite 303</s1><s2>Cambridge, ON</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>5 aut.</sZ><sZ>6 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Cambridge, ON</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Marceau, Dj" sort="Marceau, Dj" uniqKey="Marceau D" first="Dj." last="Marceau">Dj. Marceau</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><inist:fA14 i1="01"><s1>Department of Geomatics Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Dr. NW</s1><s2>Calgary, AB</s2><s3>CAN</s3><sZ>1 aut.</sZ><sZ>4 aut.</sZ><sZ>7 aut.</sZ></inist:fA14><country>Canada</country><wicri:noRegion>Calgary, AB</wicri:noRegion><orgName type="university">Université de Calgary</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Calgary</settlement><region type="state">Alberta</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j" type="main">Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. hydrol. : (Amst.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1694</idno><imprint><date when="2012">2012</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><title level="j" type="main">Journal of hydrology : (Amsterdam)</title><title level="j" type="abbreviated">J. hydrol. : (Amst.)</title><idno type="ISSN">0022-1694</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en"><term>Alberta</term><term>agriculture</term><term>aquifers</term><term>base flow</term><term>calibration</term><term>digital simulation</term><term>drainage basins</term><term>drinking water</term><term>efficiency</term><term>evapotranspiration</term><term>forests</term><term>ground water</term><term>infiltration</term><term>land use</term><term>land use map</term><term>models</term><term>performances</term><term>reservoirs</term><term>rivers</term><term>surface water</term><term>water resource management</term><term>water storage</term><term>water supply</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr"><term>Utilisation terrain</term><term>Rivière</term><term>Bassin versant</term><term>Réservoir</term><term>Eau potable</term><term>Gestion ressource eau</term><term>Simulation numérique</term><term>Stockage eau</term><term>Modèle</term><term>Carte utilisation terrain</term><term>Efficacité</term><term>Ecoulement base</term><term>Etalonnage</term><term>Performance</term><term>Agriculture</term><term>Forêt</term><term>Evapotranspiration</term><term>Infiltration</term><term>Eau surface</term><term>Approvisionnement eau</term><term>Eau souterraine</term><term>Aquifère</term><term>Rivière Elbow</term><term>Alberta</term></keywords><keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr"><term>Eau potable</term><term>Forêt</term><term>Eau souterraine</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The Elbow River in southern Alberta, Canada is the source of the Glenmore reservoir, which provides drinking water to the City of Calgary. Due to the rapid population growth in Calgary, the Elbow River watershed (ERW) that covers about 1238 km<sup>2</sup> has been under considerable pressure for land-use development over the last decade. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of potential land-use changes over the next 20 years on the hydrological processes in ERW by combining a land-use cellular automata (CA) model and the distributed physically-based MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11 hydrological model. The CA model was calibrated using four land-use maps covering the period 1985-2001 and validated against the maps of 2006 and 2010. Simulations of land-use changes were then performed from 2006 to 2031 at a five year interval; land-use based parameters were extracted from the simulated maps and transferred to MIKE-SHE/MIKE-11. MIKE-SHE was calibrated for the period 1985-1990 and validated for the period 2000-2005. The Nash and Sutcliffe coefficients of efficiency calculated between observed and simulated flow data for the calibration and validation periods are 0.56, 0.52, 0.79, and 0.75 based on different hydrometric stations respectively, indicating an acceptable level of performance of the model. Land-use changes analyzed for the period 2001-2031 reveal a 65% increase in built-up areas, 20% in rangeland/parkland, and 1% in agriculture along with a reduction of 28% in deciduous, and 6% in evergreen forest. As a result, the hydrological modeling indicates an increase of 7.3% in overland flow, and a decrease of 1%, 13.2%, and 2.3% in total evapotranspiration, baseflow, and infiltration respectively along with a decrease of the total flow by 4%. These results reveal a potential significant negative impact on the sustainability of ground/surface water supplies and groundwater storages in the future in the watershed in addition to an increased risk of flashy floods. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area, a comprehensive physically-based method is required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined CA/MIKE-SHE models appear as a useful tool to assess the impact of land-use changes on the hydrologic cycle and to better understand the connection among the hydrologic components in the Elbow River watershed.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country><region><li>Alberta</li></region><settlement><li>Calgary</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Calgary</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Canada"><region name="Alberta"><name sortKey="Wijesekara, G N" sort="Wijesekara, G N" uniqKey="Wijesekara G" first="G. N." last="Wijesekara">G. N. Wijesekara</name></region><name sortKey="Delaney, P" sort="Delaney, P" uniqKey="Delaney P" first="P." last="Delaney">P. Delaney</name><name sortKey="Gupta, A" sort="Gupta, A" uniqKey="Gupta A" first="A." last="Gupta">A. Gupta</name><name sortKey="Hasbani, J G" sort="Hasbani, J G" uniqKey="Hasbani J" first="J.-G." last="Hasbani">J.-G. Hasbani</name><name sortKey="Marceau, Dj" sort="Marceau, Dj" uniqKey="Marceau D" first="Dj." last="Marceau">Dj. Marceau</name><name sortKey="Qiao, Y" sort="Qiao, Y" uniqKey="Qiao Y" first="Y." last="Qiao">Y. Qiao</name><name sortKey="Valeo, C" sort="Valeo, C" uniqKey="Valeo C" first="C." last="Valeo">C. Valeo</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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